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Inconvenient Truths Novel science fiction on global warming. By J. Michaels This, Al Gore probably win an Academy Award for his global-warming documentary An Inconvenient Truth, a riveting work of science fiction. The main point of the movie is that, unless we do something very serious, very about carbon dioxide emissions, much of Greenland’s , cubic of ice is going to fall into the ocean, raising sea levels over twenty feet by the year. Where’s the scientific support for this claim? Certainly not in the recent Policymaker’s Summary from the United Nations’ much anticipated compendium on climate change. Under the. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s medium-range emission scenario for greenhouse gases, a rise in sea level of between 8 and 17 inches is predicted by. Gore’s film exaggerates the rise by about 2, percent. Even 17 inches is likely to be high, because it assumes that the concentration of methane, an important greenhouse gas, is growing rapidly. Atmospheric methane concentration hasn’t changed appreciably for years, and Nobel Laureate Rowland recently pronounced the IPCC’s methane emissions scenarios as “quite unlikely.” Nonetheless, the top end of the.’s new projection is about 30-percent lower than it was in its last report in. “The projections include a contribution due to increased ice flow from Greenland and Antarctica for the rates observed since ,” according to the IPCC, “but these flow rates could increase or decrease in the future.” According to satellite data published in Science in November , Greenland was losing about 25 cubic of ice per year. Dividing that by , yields the annual percentage of ice loss, which, when multiplied by , shows that Greenland was shedding ice at percent per century. “Was” is the operative word. In early February, Science published another paper showing that the recent acceleration of Greenland’s ice loss from its huge glaciers has suddenly reversed.

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